Storm Approaches

George's

Eagle Harbor Web

An unofficial source of Eagle Harbor, Michigan news, views and information.

1998-1999 Harbor Web Snow Forecast Contest

Winter Storm Approaches

1998 - 1999 Snowfall Forecast Contest

Final Report
The only game in town! 87 fearless forecasters vied for bragging rights and fabulous prizes.

The average prediction of our 87 forecasters was 320", double last year's snowfall! Some believed the record warm lake temperatures of last summer would produce heavy "lake effect" and thus record snowfalls. Others thought the dry cold air of the expected La Nina would mean less than normal snow. What happened?! (Want to know how and where the snowfall is measured for recording in this contest and display on the Keweenaw Snow Gauge? Click picture.)

Forecasting techniques ranged from John Wakeman's "2nd order polynomial trend line projection" to Judy McGrath's "we are in a recessional period in the Pleistocene glaciation", to Nelson Haydamacker's "secret scientific method....something to do with darts", to Bob Masnado's "numbers that feel right", to, what most of us used, "a wild ass guess!" Forecasts arrived from everybody; envious southerners, amused Europeans, steamy Singaporeans, baking southwesteners, drowned Texans, "cool" Californians, about to be "deep freezed" Minnesotans, and of course, from the real snow pros, the yoopers of Keweenawland.

Season Report.Well, everyone was right, although for most of us the timing was a bit off. The warm lake did have an impact. It took forever to cool down, producing an unusually warm early winter (still mowing lawns in mid-Deceber), but when it did finally cool down enough to crank up the lake effect snow machine, it did so with a vengenance! Over 100" of snow in the 30 days beginning just as our Christmas visitors were arriving. We had a good old fashioned Christmas with constant whiteouts and big, constantly moving drifts. But by mid-February it was all over. La nina kicked in, and while it never got cold, the system deflected almost all the western storms to our south. Moist Gulf air never was able to get up here and with the "lake effect" season at an end, we witnessed an early spring with only a trace of snow in March (OK, so we had a foot, that's a trace up here!), and nothing but warm sunshine in April and May. The result: a total snowfall of 217", just slighly less than average (220"), about 100" more than last year, but far short of our forcasters' average "guess" of 320" and the record 390".

The Champ: Mary Rapai. Mary's forecast of 216" was earns her the title of Eagle Harbor Web 1998-1999 Snowfall Forecast Champion ! She was not only near perfect on the total, but if you look at her monthly forecasts, you'll note she just about nailed December, January and February, the only months we had any snow worth mentioning. I'm going to ask Mary to explain the secret to her uncanny Keweenaw snowfall forcasting ability. You can't be that consistenly good just through luck, the technique most of us used.

"Close, but no cigars" honors go to St. Ignace's fabled joke teller Kim Hagen @ 213"; Nancy Clarkson's daughter Debby Buchs @ 225"; all-around nice guy Pat Ryan @ 207"; my sailing partner George Hof & pasty and cone cruncher Keith Ehrenreich, each @ 230"; and another Clarkson clan member friend, Rich Munsil @ 200".

A very special thank you to all 87 of this year's fearless forecasters. And from all of us, a BIG THANK YOU to Charlie Hopper and the folks at Still Waters Home for the highly prized pasties won by our December, January & February winners; to Mary Probst for the Eagle Harbor Inn sweatshirt we awarded in March; and to Patti Crampton for the Eagle Harbor Store "cones & goodies" chit awarded in April.

Oh, by the way, 30 of us were smart enough to figure out that there probably wouldn't be any snow in May. No glory in that, but if the instigator of this annual ritual of making fools of ourselves ever gets around to producing the "Harbor Web Snow Forecast Champ" t-shirts he promised, we'll be able to strut our success.


For the 1997-1998 contest results click 1997-1998 Keweenaw Snowfall Contest.

1957 - 1998 Snowfall History

Keweenaw Snow History
57/58-97/98 History Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Total
Most 13 76 129 111 80 78 35 14 390
Least 0 4 17 36 8 3 0 0 162
Average 3 30 62 71 37 27 11 2 242

1998 - 1999 Winter Snow Forecasts

Keweenaw Snow Forecasts
Forecaster Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Total
ACTUAL 98-99 0 15 61 92 37 12 0 0 217
George Hite 20 75 150 50 30 10 0* 0* 335
Heidi Stenson 10 43 87 97 37* 27 10 2 313
Aaron Stenson 6 41 72 82 41 21 8 0* 271
Sue Adams 0* 50 100 88 59 50 15 0* 362
Lenora Rollenhagen 3 29 62 71 39 27 11 2 244
Dick Van Pelt 7 28 61* 76 49 61 12 3 297
John Dawson 3 30 74 66 43 35 12 0* 263
Rich Boggio 2 32 94 108 78 38 10 0* 362
Mike Owen 5 36 90 100 89 40 20 2 382
Jeane Olson 0* 11 52 106 83 29 9 0* 290
Bruce Olson 15 50 125 125 75 50 20 10 470
Bill Jacka 12 31 74 98 64 49 19 2 349
Tim Colborn 20 70 145 60 35 15 5 0* 350
Bill Medlyn 4 35 82 106 43 35 12 4 321
Barry Bogart 4 26 52 88 63 42 8 0* 293
Ann Gasperich 15 33 77 116 85 72 24 12 434
Ginny Jacka-Durst 0* 25 40 63 37* 46 17 0* 227
Bob Masnado(WI) 11 53 78 83 43 22 6 1 297
U Dale 0* 10 37 71 58 82 44 13 315
Steve King 2 22 72 95 70 45 14 2 322
Jack Brunell 2 21 45 60 35 25 8 0* 196
Karen Anderson/Jack Ham 4 18 150 130 91 40 10 3 446
Peter Van Pelt 8 43 82 82 48 40 13 0* 316
Margi Hamstrom 12 26 62 93* 68 58 19 10 348
Bonnie Hay 1 22 94 157 107 21 11 1 417
Patti Crampton 0* 40 95 80 45 30 15 5 310
Chris Masi 12 45 106 89 25 17 5 1 300
Ellie & Lindy Dahlstrom 4 20 90 90 80 50 3 5 369
Roger Welsh 0* 39 71 73 44 26 16 0* 269
Liz Benson 6 28 75 64 48 37 15 3 276
George Hof 1 25 50 75 40 25 13 1 230
Marilynn Ehrenreich 0* 25 30 110 86 30 5 0* 286
Matt Collins 5 27 92 122 74 48 14 4 386
Kim Hagen 9 25 40 55 34 38 12 0* 213
Mary Beyers 2 44 90 97 38 40 13 2 326
Dan Young 8 78 97 122 88 18 6 0* 412
Sarah & David Lewis 4 32 67 69 38 26 6 0* 242
Barbara Whiteside 4 35 74 86 66 31 14 5 315
Rick Johnson 0* 17 53 49 62 24 45 32 282
Lawrence McKenny 8 65 121 115 75 72 34 13 503
Ann Johnson 16 49 94 100 77 31 10 8 385
Gerry Johnson 13 51 100 65 25 40 15 0* 309
Pat & Anna Roche 3 43 83 90 45 27 11 1 303
Nancy Clarkson 8 15* 23 78 110 57 23 10 324
John Wakeman 4 32 63 79 37* 28 17 2 262
Nancy Wakeman 0* 72 80 99 57 48 16 1 373
Jim & Sharon Wilks 0* 4 88 61 49 32 20 8 262
Vern Robinson 12 30 36 60 48 36 36 18 276
Cathy(Carlton)& Bob Wilson 8 30 95 98 60 42 15 2 350
Judy McGrath 49 144 44 177 99 77 142 14 746
Elaine (Johnson) Finke 3 32 64 84 52 29 22 5 291
Rick Finke 1 20 60 67 48 37 8 1 242
Mary Rapai 0* 26 60 75 35 17 3 0* 216*
Rick Rollenhagen 6 18 57 83 25 47 16 0* 252
Henning Holldorff 8 40 73 73 44 40 17 7 302
Jim Boggio 4 48 104 110 52 35 8 3 364
Anne Boggio 1 40 90 99 69 29 15 1 344
Keith Ehrenreich 3 25 79 57 37* 29 0* 0* 230
Justin Koenders 12 24 64 161 82 24 20 12 399
Nelson Haydamacker 4 34 73 37 42 33 7 6 236
Debby Buchs 0* 35 45 80 40 20 0* 5 225
Phil Boggio 7 43 124 70 25 16 7 0* 292
Rich Munsil 0* 20 55 75 30 13* 7 0* 200
Dennis & Cheri Abraham 10 70 107 69 50 35 15 0* 356
John Lindblom 0* 12 40 89 85 30 10 0* 266
Tina & Doug Long 2 32 68 71 35 26 13 0* 247
Malcom Millar 289
Pat Ryan 207
Jocelyn Anderson 5 50 80 80 50 40 20 7 332
Don Koop 1 10 8 130 129 16 10 0* 304
Deanna Anderson 1 25 100 95 90 20 12 1 344
Nena Jackson 326
Mike Lambert 382
Barbara Koop 403
Pat Asselin 6 45 56 72 48 18 8 2 255
Bryan Koop 0* 36 109 99 69 68 39 10 430
Chad Koop 0* 20 30 84 26 18 10 5 193
Shawmn Koop 0* 18 61* 26 42 19 11 0* 196
Stacy Koop 3 28 50 50 29 18 18 0* 196
Alice Black 16 36 65 69 45 58 4 5 298
Robert P. Black 1 22 59 82 70 33 4 0* 271
Bruce Koop 421
Lanista Anderson 10 12 45 56 19 51 20 26 239
Julie Martin 5 40 70 20 32 9 8 10 192
Sherry Nordstrom 2 25 84 76 51 55 30 12 333
John Clarkson 0* 32 63 189 189 126 32 0* 630
Lynn Bryant 5 28 51 76 29 51 24 4 263
Gary Byrant 8 66 100 90 40 31 20 6 361
* Winner

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